This market is about the extinction risk of the Sumatran Rhinoceros species in the current century, regardless of subspecies. The market will resolve YES if the Sumatran Rhinoceros is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumatran_rhinoceros
IUCN assessment
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/6553/18493355
For comparison, the market about the wild extinction risk:
1,000I have created a second markt about the wild extinction risk of the Sumatran Rhino (see link in description above), to allow for a distinction of the wild population and the whole species.
According to the International Rhino Foundation there are as few as 34-47 individuals. A few individuals are in a semi-wild breeding program at the Sumatran Rhino Sanctuary
https://rhinos.org/about-rhinos/rhino-species/sumatran-rhino/
Save the Rhino: World Rhino Day 2023: New numbers and challenges
https://www.savetherhino.org/africa/world-rhino-day-2023-new-numbers-and-challenges/
Here a first comparison of the extinction risk of 20 species, for which I have set up markets yesterday and today. I have classified them in ten risk classes.
0-9%: Ultra Low Risk
None
10-19%: Low Risk
None
20-29%: Minor Risk
30-39%: Moderate Risk
Bonobo, Black Rhinoceros, Lion
40-49%: Substantial Risk
White Rhinoceros, Asian Elephant, African Savanna Elephant, Western Gorilla, Tiger, Leopard, Jaguar
50-59%: Significant Risk
Indian Rhinoceros, African Forest Elephant, Sumatran Orangutan, Eastern Gorilla, Snow Leopard
60-69%: High Risk
Tapanuli Orangutan, Bornean Orangutan
70-79%: Severe Risk
80-89%: Critical Risk
90-100%: Ultra High Risk
None
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?