I have asked 10 AI chatbots for an estimation of the wild extinction risk and complete extinction risk by 2100 of the Sumatran Rhinoceros. The average of the answers is 85,74% for the wild extinction risk, 70,00% for the complete extinction risk. Here the prompt and the AI predictions:

Prompt

Evaluate the Sumatran Rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis), a species that is classified as “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2019). 

Firstly, estimate the risk of the wild population becoming extinct by 2100. Wild Extinction means the death of the last wild individual, excluding captive animals. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction in the wild and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current wild population, ongoing threats, and habitat trends. 

Secondly, estimate the risk of complete extinction by 2100. Complete Extinction means the death of the last individual, including wild and captive populations. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current population (wild and captive), ongoing threats, and habitat trends.

Prediction markets on Manifold Markets have estimated the wild extinction risk of the species by 2100 at 88%, the complete extinction risk at 83%. Forecasters at Metaculus have estimated the wild extinction risk by 2100 at 76%, the complete extinction risk at 54%.

In about 100 words, explain your reasoning.

Grok:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 92.00%

Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 85.00%

Reasoning: The Sumatran rhinoceros, critically endangered per the 2019 IUCN Red List, has a wild population of 34–47 individuals across fragmented habitats in Sumatra and Borneo, with a 13% annual decline. Poaching, habitat loss from deforestation, and inbreeding depression severely threaten viability. Captive breeding (10 individuals) shows limited success, with low genetic diversity and reproductive challenges. By 2100, small, isolated wild populations face near-certain extinction without aggressive intervention. Complete extinction is slightly less likely due to captive breeding, but genetic bottlenecks and habitat degradation persist. Manifold (88%, 83%) and Metaculus (76%, 54%) align with high-risk scenarios, though my estimates reflect steeper declines.

ChatGPT:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 85.00%
Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 60.00%

Reasoning: The Sumatran Rhinoceros has a critically low wild population (fewer than 50 individuals), fragmented into isolated subpopulations across Sumatra and Borneo. Key threats include habitat loss, poaching, and especially reproductive isolation, which makes recovery extremely difficult. The species suffers from low birth rates and inbreeding. Captive breeding efforts have seen some success (e.g., births at the Sumatran Rhino Sanctuary), but the program remains limited. Wild extinction is highly likely by 2100 without drastic intervention. Complete extinction is less certain due to captive efforts, though still a significant risk given the fragility of the ex situ population and ongoing funding challenges.

DeepSeek:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 85.00%
Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 70.00%

The Sumatran rhinoceros faces severe threats, including habitat loss, poaching, and extremely low population numbers (fewer than 50 wild individuals). Fragmented habitats and low genetic diversity further reduce recovery prospects. While captive breeding efforts exist, success is limited due to reproductive challenges. Wild extinction is highly likely due to ongoing threats and minimal intervention efficacy. Complete extinction is slightly less probable due to captive populations, but their long-term viability remains uncertain. The higher wild extinction risk reflects the species' dire wild status, while the lower complete extinction risk accounts for potential, though uncertain, captive survival. These estimates align with but slightly moderate market and Metaculus predictions.

Gemini:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 95.00% 

Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 65.00%

Reasoning: The Sumatran Rhinoceros faces an extremely high risk of wild extinction. With an estimated 34-47 individuals remaining in fragmented, declining wild populations as of early 2025, the pressures of severe habitat loss and the inherent difficulties of breeding in such small, isolated groups (Allee effect) make their persistence in a truly wild state highly improbable. The core conservation strategy now focuses on consolidating remaining individuals into managed breeding programs. This necessary action, by definition, reduces the "wild" population, making its disappearance by 2100 almost certain.

The risk of complete extinction is also very high, but somewhat lower than wild extinction, due to the glimmers of hope from captive breeding programs, particularly at the Sumatran Rhino Sanctuary in Indonesia. These programs have seen crucial successes, including recent births. However, the global population (wild and captive) is perilously small. Over the next 75 years, the species remains highly vulnerable to issues like low genetic diversity, potential disease outbreaks in sanctuaries, and the long-term challenges of sustaining breeding success and funding for intensive conservation efforts. While there's a pathway to survival through these programs, the odds remain formidable.

Perplexity:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 85.00%
Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 72.00%

The Sumatran rhinoceros faces critical risks due to its tiny, fragmented wild population (34–47 individuals), with isolated subpopulations too small for genetic viability. Habitat loss and low breeding rates persist, and despite no recent poaching, population declines (~13% annually) suggest collapse without intervention. Captive breeding (10 individuals, five calves born) offers hope but relies on limited genetic diversity and expansion efforts. Wild extinction likelihood is high due to demographic stochasticity and habitat pressures, while captive programs slightly mitigate total extinction risk, though disease or breeding failures remain threats.

@ConservationForecasts Claude:

Risk of wild extinction by 2100: 81.75%

Risk of complete extinction by 2100: 67.50%

My estimate reflects the Sumatran rhinoceros's dire situation: fewer than 80 individuals remain in fragmented populations across Sumatra and Borneo. These populations face severe threats from poaching, habitat loss due to deforestation and palm oil plantations, and reduced reproductive success due to isolation. Their extremely low numbers make them vulnerable to stochastic events and genetic issues.

My wild extinction estimate sits between expert forecasts, leaning toward pessimism given continued habitat destruction. My complete extinction estimate is lower than the wild extinction risk due to conservation breeding programs, though these face challenges of low genetic diversity and difficulty breeding in captivity.

Copilot:

The Sumatran Rhinoceros faces an extremely high risk of extinction due to its critically low population, habitat fragmentation, and reproductive challenges. Based on available data, I estimate:

Wild extinction risk by 2100: 87.50%

Complete extinction risk by 2100: 72.00%

The wild population is estimated at fewer than 80 individuals, with many isolated and unable to breed. Habitat destruction and poaching further accelerate decline. Captive breeding efforts offer some hope, but reproductive difficulties and genetic bottlenecks make long-term survival uncertain. While conservation efforts continue, the species' trajectory suggests a high probability of extinction without drastic intervention.

YouChat:

Based on comprehensive analysis of research data and computational modeling, here are the extinction risk estimates for the Sumatran Rhinoceros:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 76.13% 

Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 60.48%

Reasoning

These estimates are based on several critical factors: The current wild population of just 34-47 individuals is severely fragmented and faces intense pressures from habitat loss and poaching. The computational model weighted current population metrics (30%), threat intensities (30%), and prediction market estimates (40%) for the wild extinction risk. For complete extinction risk, the model incorporated captive breeding success rates (20%), current population status (25%), environmental threats (20%), and prediction market estimates (35%). The slightly lower complete extinction risk reflects the buffer provided by captive breeding programs, which have shown some success with 10 individuals in captivity and five successful births at the Sumatran Rhino Sanctuary. However, both scenarios remain highly concerning due to ongoing habitat fragmentation and limited genetic diversity.

Meta:

Based on the critically endangered status of the Sumatran Rhinoceros and ongoing threats to its habitat and population, I estimate the risk of wild extinction by 2100 to be 85.00%. The current small wild population and limited conservation efforts contribute to this high risk. For complete extinction, I estimate the risk to be 78.00%. Although captive breeding programs exist, their success is uncertain, and the species' persistence relies on a combination of effective conservation and management. Given the predictions from Manifold Markets and Metaculus, my estimates fall within the range of these forecasts, leaning towards a slightly more optimistic outlook than Manifold Markets.

ScienceOS:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 85.00%

The Sumatran rhinoceros faces severe threats, including habitat loss, poaching, and reproductive isolation, with fewer than 80 individuals remaining in fragmented populations. Despite conservation efforts, such as translocation and captive breeding, the wild population continues to decline, and breeding success is limited. The species' low genetic diversity and small population size exacerbate its vulnerability to extinction in the wild.

Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 70.00%

Captive breeding programs have achieved limited success, with only a few births recorded. However, the small captive population and challenges in maintaining genetic diversity make complete extinction a significant risk. Advanced reproductive technologies and international collaboration are critical but remain underfunded and underdeveloped.

Reasoning

The wild extinction risk is higher due to ongoing habitat destruction and poaching. Captive populations provide a buffer but are insufficiently robust to ensure long-term survival without significant intervention. These estimates align with expert forecasts and reflect the species' critical status.

I have created a second markt about the wild extinction risk of the Sumatran Rhino (see link in description above), to allow for a distinction of the wild population and the whole species.

According to the International Rhino Foundation there are as few as 34-47 individuals. A few individuals are in a semi-wild breeding program at the Sumatran Rhino Sanctuary

https://rhinos.org/about-rhinos/rhino-species/sumatran-rhino/

Save the Rhino: World Rhino Day 2023: New numbers and challenges

https://www.savetherhino.org/africa/world-rhino-day-2023-new-numbers-and-challenges/

Here a first comparison of the extinction risk of 20 species, for which I have set up markets yesterday and today. I have classified them in ten risk classes.

0-9%: Ultra Low Risk

None

10-19%: Low Risk

None

20-29%: Minor Risk

Chimpanzee

30-39%: Moderate Risk

Bonobo, Black Rhinoceros, Lion

40-49%: Substantial Risk

White Rhinoceros, Asian Elephant, African Savanna Elephant, Western Gorilla, Tiger, Leopard, Jaguar

50-59%: Significant Risk

Indian Rhinoceros, African Forest Elephant, Sumatran Orangutan, Eastern Gorilla, Snow Leopard

60-69%: High Risk

Tapanuli Orangutan, Bornean Orangutan

70-79%: Severe Risk

Sumatran Rhinoceros

80-89%: Critical Risk

Javan Rhinoceros

90-100%: Ultra High Risk

None