This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the Asian Elephant, a species that is classified as “Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2019). It will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the Asian Elephant persists.
For more information about the species, see:
For comparison, here the market about the complete extinction risk, including captive individuals:
1,000I have asked ChatGPT and Gemini for an assessment of extinction risks. Here the prompt and answers.
Prompt:
Evaluate the Asian Elephant (Elephas maximus), a species that is classified as “Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2019).
Firstly, estimate the risk of the wild population becoming extinct by 2100. Wild Extinction means the death of the last wild individual, excluding captive animals. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction in the wild and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current wild population, ongoing threats, and habitat trends.
Secondly, estimate the risk of complete extinction by 2100. Complete Extinction means the death of the last individual, including wild and captive populations. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current population (wild and captive), ongoing threats, and habitat trends. Prediction markets on Manifold Markets have estimated the wild extinction risk of the species by 2100 at 21%, the complete extinction risk at 16%. In about 100 words, explain your reasoning.
Answer ChatGPT
Wild extinction risk by 2100: 27.50%
Complete extinction risk by 2100: 6.25%
Asian elephants number ~40,000–50,000 in the wild, but are fragmented across 13 countries, with severe pressures from habitat loss, human-elephant conflict, poaching, and infrastructure expansion. Populations are declining, especially outside India and Sri Lanka, and climate change will worsen fragmentation. These factors justify a substantial risk of wild extinction by 2100, higher than prediction market estimates. However, the large captive population (>15,000 individuals) across Asia and zoos worldwide, along with cultural and religious protections, makes complete extinction highly unlikely. Captive management and conservation programs should ensure persistence of the species, even if wild populations collapse.
Answer Gemini
Here are the estimates for the Asian Elephant (Elephas maximus).
Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 25.50%
Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 1.75%
Reasoning
The relatively high wild extinction risk of 25.50% is driven by severe and accelerating habitat fragmentation across Asia. This isolates populations, limits genetic diversity, and intensifies deadly human-elephant conflicts. Continued poaching of tusked males further harms the population's reproductive viability. The risk of complete extinction, however, is drastically lower at 1.75%. This is because a large and geographically dispersed captive population of roughly 16,000 elephants acts as a vital genetic reservoir. This "insurance population" in zoos and sanctuaries makes the species' total disappearance highly improbable, barring a catastrophic, species-specific event.