Will the Houthis sink a commercial ship before 2024-07-01?
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1kṀ20k
resolved Mar 3
Resolved
YES

Houthi rebels in Yemen have carried out several attacks on commercial vessels in the area of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Will they sink a commercial vessel?

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Market for sinking a second ship, if you liked this one:

@riverwalk3 agree with this - initially it was only the Yemeni government that declared it sunk but it's been corroborated
@EvanDaniel

eta: a similar market just resolved yes

The latest news is that Djibouti is refusing the vessel. (Why? This seems unexpected to me. Is it normal?) So is Aden. So they are trying Jeddah now.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-says-yemens-houthis-ballistic-missile-misses-us-tanker-torm-thor-2024-02-26/

@metacontrarian Even if by a feat of nautical engineering it doesn't sink for a week, I guess it just sits there now? Who's going to go tow it?

@metacontrarian The company who owns it is planning to tow it to Djibouti last I heard

Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree claimed on Monday night that the Rubymar sank. However, satellite images from Planet Labs PBC analyzed by The Associated Press showed the Rubymar still afloat at 2 p.m. local time Tuesday just north of the Bab el-Mandeb.

https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthi-red-sea-israel-hamas-6ac2a1bf5032ed0531258816907cfe2c

I'm seeing reports that the Rubymar sustained serious damage and Houthi sources are claiming it has sunk or will sink soon. I've also seen a recent video from an unverified source of a ship that looks a lot like Rubymar sinking, but frankly I'm not overly confident it's the right ship, or else I would have bid this a lot higher!

Regardless of whether the Rubymar actually sinks, it's clear they seriously escalated their attacks today. It's only a matter of time.

predictedNO

The fire has been put out according to BBC.

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