Will the Houthis sink a ship in the Red Sea in 2023 or 2024?
42
258
730
resolved Mar 2
Resolved
YES

Adding some caveats in response to some questions in the comments:

To resolve yes:

— the vessel length must exceed 100ft, so small patrol boats won’t count. I was intending ships, not small boats.

— for purposes of this market, ‘sink’ means the vessel is either a) completely submerged due to Houthi attack OR b) damaged beyond repair such that a third party sinks the vessel rather than tow it to safe harbor.

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inactive creator, resolves yes

@SemioticRivalry oh good looking out - thanks! 🙏

echoing the other resolution requests - not only has the Yemeni government declared Rubymar sunk but it's been corroborated. ready to resolve @StephenSweet

bought Ṁ1,690 YES

Ready to resolve!

Market for sinking a second ship, if you liked this one:

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Is there a tonnage limitation here, will any sized vessel count?

predicted NO

@vitamind Good question…there’s no tonnage requirement, but let’s weed out some edge cases.

To resolve yes:

— the vessel length must exceed 100ft, so small patrol boats won’t count. I was intending ships, not small boats.

— for purposes of this market, ‘sink’ means either a) completely submerged due to Houthi attack OR b) damaged beyond repair such that a third party sinks the vessel rather than tow it to safe harbor.

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