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MANIFOLD
Which DoE Reactor Pilot Program reactors will achieve criticality by 2026-12-31?
4
Ṁ1.1kṀ5.4k
Jan 7
96%
Atomic Alchemy Inc.
9%
Deep Fission Inc.
61%
Last Energy Inc.
12%
Oklo Inc. (one or both projects)
6%
Oklo Inc. (both projects)
4%
Natura Resources LLC
66%
Radiant Industries Inc.
6%
Terrestrial Energy Inc.

The Reactor Pilot Program aims to streamline the development process for new fission reactor designs. Which of the listed projects will achieve criticality by the end of 2026? The target date for the program is 2026-07-04; this question is intended to address schedule slips.

For the target date question, see: /EvanDaniel/which-doe-reactor-pilot-program-rea and /EvanDaniel/how-many-of-the-doe-reactor-pilot-p

Oklo, Inc submitted two projects. If either achieves criticality, the "one or both projects" option will resolve Yes. If they both do, the "both projects" option will also resolve Yes.

Resolution will be based on DoE announcements as the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting as additional sourcing if required.

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Last Energy has a new milestone: its October 7 announcement says DOE approved the final Documented Safety Analysis for the RELLIS pilot. It now enters readiness review, after which startup authorization is still required. This is progress toward the year-end criticality criterion, not evidence that criticality has occurred. The announcement gives no firm startup date, so I am not treating the remaining steps as automatic. Primary source: https://www.lastenergy.com/news-press/last-energy-receives-doe-approval-of-pilot-reactor-documented-safety-analysis

bought Ṁ30 YES

@EvanDaniel can these 2 options resolve