How will S&P500 returns compare if the Democrats win in 2024 vs Republicans?
1
Ṁ300
Nov 9
8%
<= -10% (D win); >= 10% (R win)
14%
> -10% to <= -3%
14%
> -3% to <= -1%
14%
> -1% to <= 0%
14%
> 0% to <= 1%
14%
> 1% to <= 3%
14%
> 3% to <= 10%
9%
> 10% (D win); < -10% (R win)

As of closing prices for both dates.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview

See also:

/EvanDaniel/what-will-the-sp500-close-at-on-202

Baseline forecast:

/EvanDaniel/what-will-the-sp-500-returns-be-fro

This market attempts to forecast the difference the election makes. If the Democratic party wins the presidency in 2024, the market will resolve the same way as the underlying market. If the Republicans win, it will resolve the opposite way. So, if the Republicans win in 2024 and the S&P500 goes up by 1.5% between the dates listed, the option "> -3% to <= -1%" would win.

To speed resolution, this will resolve PROB to match the underlying market prices as of 24 hours after the election is determined. This market will be used as underlying for election resolution: /ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-2024-us-pr-f4158bf9278a . In the unlikely event a third party wins the election, this market will resolve as PROB to 50% each "> -1% to <= 0%" and "> 0% to <= 1%".

#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#S&P 500
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