In this market, I am interested in predicting the distribution of inter-day returns in the S&P500 for 2026. An inter-day return is defined as the percent change between the closing values of two successive trading days. More precisely, the percent change between the closing price on trading day t and trading day t + 1 is defined as:

x = ((cₜ₊₁ - cₜ) / cₜ) ⋅ 100

At the end of 2026, I will partially resolve each option according to the proportion of returns that satisfy the criteria defined in each option. In the first option, for example, p(x ≥ -2) is the proportion of returns that is greater than or equal to -2%. If that happens to be 201 out of 250 trading days, the market will resolve to 80%, which is rounded to the nearest second digit. This means that 5 shares would yield a return of 4 Mana.