How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?
Premium
11
Ṁ26422027
67%
>= 100
56%
>= 200
53%
>= 300
49%
>= 500
48%
>= 800
30%
>= 1300
18%
>= 2100
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate. Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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