It looks like this one might be over 98% on 7. What can we do to increase the chances that it is close to the true odds. How can I tell if it is 98, 99, or 99.5?

@Eliza My evidence: no one has bought No on 7 yet.

@Eliza that's a very good question, and basically what I'm trying to figure out here. This question is an attempt to answer that about the underlying markets.

Having explored this a bit more than when I wrote this originally, I would:

• Add a few more states. Probably until one of the underlying states seemed like it should be ~ 95%.

• Make a market for the rest of the individual states (the mirror image of this underlying market set).

• Write another of these for the high probability R states.

• Possibly write a third derivative market for the D+R high probability states in one market.

• Make the buckets a little more fine grained.

Feel free to contribute if you like :)