1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ101 | |
| 2 | Ṁ80 | |
| 3 | Ṁ18 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
It looks like this one might be over 98% on 7. What can we do to increase the chances that it is close to the true odds. How can I tell if it is 98, 99, or 99.5?
@Eliza that's a very good question, and basically what I'm trying to figure out here. This question is an attempt to answer that about the underlying markets.
Having explored this a bit more than when I wrote this originally, I would:
Add a few more states. Probably until one of the underlying states seemed like it should be ~ 95%.
Make a market for the rest of the individual states (the mirror image of this underlying market set).
Write another of these for the high probability R states.
Possibly write a third derivative market for the D+R high probability states in one market.
Make the buckets a little more fine grained.
Feel free to contribute if you like :)