Each option requires that the listed candidate both be nominated by their respective party and then win the election.
This is a derivative market, and will resolve according to these underlying markets:
/EvanDaniel/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20-zA926yNPOA
/DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-e7fd97afa9bf
/DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-757313dd0344
Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Independent or 3rd party wins are included in the "Other" option. The market does not separately track cases where Vance or Newsom are nominated vs. not and in independent wins.
1,000Google Sheet with implied probabilities:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tStWKvCzNCSig63eJWStA-67ULapCOD2IHUymtcUubE/edit?usp=sharing
Feel free to make copies or new versions, I'd love to see what people do with it!
@EvanDaniel Includes wins by Independent or 3rd parties. I opted not to break out the Vance and Newsom nominated vs not cases in this one to keep the number of answers manageable.
Google Sheet with implied probabilities:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tStWKvCzNCSig63eJWStA-67ULapCOD2IHUymtcUubE/edit?usp=sharing
Feel free to make copies or new versions, I'd love to see what people do with it!