Will the 2028 Presidential Election be Vance vs. Newsom?

Question

My intent is to make this a clean derivative market, symmetric in its resolution. I intend to resolve it consistently with these markets:

@/LarsDoucet/will-jd-vance-be-nominated-for-pres@/AmmonLam/will-gavin-newsom-be-the-democratic-d7975b1db008

I may change the underlyings any time before EOY 2026 if there are more rigorously defined, highly liquid, more symmetric markets. Suggestions welcome.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 14% chance (18 traders, as of Aug 15, 2026).