Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if an astronomical object officially classified as a "comet" is observed from the Northern Hemisphere and is reported to have reached a peak apparent magnitude of 2.00 or brighter at any time before January 1, 2030.

Official maximum brightness (magnitude) values will be sourced from the COBS database. https://cobs.si

If no such comet reaches the brightness threshold before 2030 this market resolves NO. If a comet is predicted to reach this brightness but does not do so, the market also resolves to NO.

Background

Comets are icy bodies that release gas or dust as they approach the Sun, potentially creating a visible atmosphere (coma) or tail. While comets are frequently discovered, those that become bright enough to be clearly seen without optical aid—especially those reaching a magnitude of 0 or brighter—are relatively rare. Predicting the exact brightness of a comet far in advance is difficult, as it depends on factors like the comet's size, composition, and distance from the Sun.

This description was partially generated by AI.