I get elected if nominated for president?

100Ṁ210

2030

chance

ALL

Context:

I am a nobody. No experience in politics. No clout. Not even a US citizenship. Nothing.

But I will make sure I do NOT get nominated if I don't have a great chance of getting elected. I will determine what my chance of winning is, using this market.

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if I am elected President of the United States in the next presidential election, provided I have been officially nominated as a candidate. If I am nominated and I do not get elected it will resolve to "No". If I do not receive an official nomination, the market will resolve to "N/A."

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1,000

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3 Comments

9 Holders

9 Trades

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... Also I noticed I asked this (admittedly joke) question slightly wrong, I should have said "it resolves YES if I'm not nominated". But the way people are betting "No", I doubt it would change the results. (But logically it should have.) The market is not perfectly logical.

bought Ṁ75 NO

@Ersagun were you born in the United States? If not, it is impossible for you to be a "natural-born citizen" (which is one of the official POTUS requirements).

@duck_master Hmm, no. But from the angle I was asking this question, it shouldn't matter. Because it's already conditioned on me getting nominated. If I get nominated, I must have somehow sidestepped that rule, or the rule must have changed somehow.