Please see https://manifold.markets/Ernie/does-a-labor-strike-end-when-the-wo?r=RXJuaWU for detail on how I will determine when a strike ends

Does a labor strike end when the workers return to work, or when a deal is signed and the strike is legally over?

53% chance. YES - strike is over when workers return to work. This means that if they return to work, but then stop again, it's a NEW strike? That is weird. NO - when the deal is signed. This means that if they start working again, and only sign a contract a month later, the strike was on for a month while they were negotiating (weird). Will resolve to market price Also, this will be input to how to resolve the related markets on when the UAW strikes will end. It isn't definitive, but this is a place for us to discuss.

After it announced the tentative deal with Ford, the UAW said it was sending Ford workers back to work at struck plants — even before the contract was ratified.

...

The UAW is similarly sending Stellantis workers back to their production lines as the vote is held. Striking GM workers remain on the picket line.

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/28/1209142735/uaw-strike-deal-gm-stellantis-ford-shawn-fain

I understand that the deal hasn't been ratified by the union members yet, but the workers are off the picket lines and back to work so the strike is over. As said you said in another market: "My current view of a strike is when workers aren't working. If they start working again and get off the picket lines, that seems to be when

it's over."

UAW reaches tentative deal with Chrysler parent Stellantis to end 6-week strike

The tentative deal — which needs to be approved by members — comes less than a week after the union struck a similar deal with Ford. Meanwhile, the union is expanding its strike against GM.

@WrongoPhD yes that makes sense. I am concerned if the final deal fails to be approved and they come off the lines again, though. Would it be logical to call that a new strike? I would prefer to wait til it's official.

@Ernie Based on this standard, and the fact that Ford's deal is only just being sent to union middle management today, I think Yes was way over-valued!

@Panfilo I think you are interpreting what Ernie is saying differently than I am. I take it to mean he agrees the strike has ended in October, but wants to make sure it doesn't start up again after the union members officially vote on the contract before resolving the market. If they reject the contract and go back to the picket lines then it will resolve as "no" because a return to the picket line would effectively be part of the same strike, but if they accept the contract and do not go back to striking, he will resolve it "yes" because the strike will have ended in October even though the contract hasn't been ratified by the union yet.

To me, it's very clear the market was about striking and not about signing a new contract. Nothing in the market suggests the union ratifying the contract is part of this market. In my view, this market is supposed to be about when the strike ends "either through abandonment or concessions or any other reason," and the workers are back to work because of concessions so there is no strike. This is different than the writers union in which the strike continued even after an agreement was made until the union members voted.

@WrongoPhD Yes, that's been my thought so far. similar to say if two countries are at war, but then they stop shooting for a week in hopes of a deal. Are they still at war? It's hard to say - legally they are, but they're not shooting. If the deal happens, then you might say the war ended when they stopped shooting - but if it doesn't happen and they start shooting again, you wouldn't say it ended at all yet, just paused. It does make interpreting the meaning of the claims here difficult.

Sorry, by abandon I mean stop for any reason - not just giving up. i.e. getting concessions and signing a deal would also qualify. Is that okay with your interpretation, @calm ?

@StrayClimb eh i think chances of that are a higher than 31% but i'm even so i'll just sell. thanks for the clarification!