🏅 Top traders

/StrayClimb/will-every-digit-09-appear-in-the-s-7fb9aa0b9f03

/StrayClimb/will-every-digit-09-appear-in-the-s-67c658747695

Two more chances to win, count 'em TWO chances to win

Looks like we hit 4288

Day ten

We got to: {0, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9}

We missed: {1, 6} - so close!

Thanks for playing everybody!!!!!!! Tune in next week for later versions!

Arb here: https://manifold.markets/StrayClimb/will-the-sp-500-increase-by-over-10-9fa016586f7b?r=U3RyYXlDbGltYg

To limit your exposure to extreme changes which are more likely to contain hits

Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in one day in September 2023?

0.9% chance.

Day nine 4299

We are at {0, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9}

Tomorrow we need... 1,6,8

We can hit 4186, 4186, 4618, 4681. But it's a long shot. I'll bet it down for you

Day eight: 4,274

We are at {0, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7}, no change

okay guys we just can't get a break. We still need quite a few digits.

Day seven: 4273

We are at {0, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7}, no change

We just need {1,6,8,9} in three days.

We could hit 4289, 4298, 4268, 4198, or many other nice numbers to improve the situation!

@StrayClimb Manifold's YES bias in action. This is a perfectly good situation imo

/StrayClimb/will-every-digit-09-appear-in-the-s-22adc1b1b3db

/StrayClimb/will-every-digit-09-appear-in-the-s-7fb9aa0b9f03

Did you know it's technically impossible to lose more than N coin flips in a row, for some N?

We could hit 4316, 4389 and be done, easy. Don't give up!!!

Day six 4337

We are at {0, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7}

day five: 4320

We are at {0, 2, 3, 4, 5}, no change

Well, half done in the first half of the timespan... that's good... right?

Brutal first week guys.

Day four: 4330

We are at {0, 2, 3, 4, 5}, no change from yesterday.

6 days left to get just 5 digits! This should be doable right?

Day three: 4402

We are at {0, 2, 3, 4, 5}

Is anybody cross-playing these with the markets about huge spikes / drops? If one of those happens you might get some unexpected digits for free!

/StrayClimb/will-the-last-digit-of-the-sp-500-c-ba1851745a03

/StrayClimb/will-the-last-digit-of-the-sp-500-c-f2a7f0aadaa2

/StrayClimb/will-the-last-digit-of-the-sp-500-c-c3325260b3ae

Are you gonna lay down and just let the dice of fate crush you?

@StrayClimb I give it about 19% (two random numbers/d, 8 days to go). Will geht my loses back via my new No Payout.

@Willi yes... What gets me is that it's not actually random, particularly the tens digit. I was surprised by the big drop yesterday.

Day two result: 4443

Wow so close to 4444!

We are at {3,4,5} no change from yesterday with eight days to go.

Day 1 result: 4453. Could have been worse 3 digits down. We are at: {3,4,5}

Interesting market. Confirming, this is not counting any of the "change" i.e. if it closes at $123.45 the .45 would not be included, correct?

@dieselbaby1337 correct. Just the integer part of digits excluding leading zero