Will at least 3 F-35s be lost by the US in 2026

1kṀ755

2027

39%

chance

ALL

Lost for any reason. Within 2026 calendar year.

Counts

Crash
Lost
Captured
Disappeared
Stolen by adversary

Does not count

Unusable plane due to bugs
Repossessed by creditors
Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access
We still control it but it can't take off due to runway damage or runway unavailability, even intentional
Sold or transferred to ally or other

Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:
- Lost is defined by whether the plane is usable after landing.
- If repairs return the plane to service, it does not count as lost.
- A clear dividing line should be established, considering repair durations (e.g., repairs should not exceed six months).

Aviation

Military

F-35

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"In 2026" means losses in 2025 don't count, right?

@zsig @Ernie

@zsig

Yes

> Within 2026 calendar year.

filled a Ṁ7 NO at 39% order

Just to clarify, shot down counts too?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen if it's not usable to fight anymore then lost, yes.

filled a Ṁ30 NO at 47% order

If the plane is damaged in a crash/accident but remains useable after repairs, does it count as lost?

@MaxWilliams I'm trying to make the divider whether it's usable after landing. If repairs return it to service then I'd say it wasn't lost. I don't believe I've heard of cases where repairs take say 6months - I'd expect the dividing line to be clear. Of course reality does have a way. If there's a case that's close we can debate here and / or use LLMs to evaluate if it was really lost (ie out of action).