
Will at least 3 F-35s be lost by the US in 2026
11
1kṀ7552027
39%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Lost for any reason. Within 2026 calendar year.
Counts
Crash
Lost
Captured
Disappeared
Stolen by adversary
Does not count
Unusable plane due to bugs
Repossessed by creditors
Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access
We still control it but it can't take off due to runway damage or runway unavailability, even intentional
Sold or transferred to ally or other
Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:
Lost is defined by whether the plane is usable after landing.
If repairs return the plane to service, it does not count as lost.
A clear dividing line should be established, considering repair durations (e.g., repairs should not exceed six months).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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