Which elite global achievers will join manifold? Nobel prize, Nebula, Pope, EGOT, Pulitzer? 50+ Y/N options, research op

Basic

Ṁ2654

2025

38%

Member of the Royal Society

98%

Anyone published in Nature or Science

81%

Someone with over 100k stackoverflow points

98%

An official holder of a Guinness world record p/p

34%

An Olympic gold medalist

34%

A member of the MLB, NFL, NHL, or NBA hall of fame

34%

A US military general or higher

19%

A member of the British Nobility

34%

A European princess or Prince

76%

Forbes 30 under 30 p/p

32%

TIME person of the year

37%

Presidential pardon recipients, USA

25%

Member of the House of Lords p/p

37%

Head of one of the usgov executive departments p/p

36%

Member of the US presidents cabinet p/p

89%

An attendee of the World Economic Forum at Davos

56%

Any member of skull and bones

34%

Any member of a dynastic order such as the Order of the Garter, see link

Head of a religion w/1mm or more adherents

1.9%

Roman Catholic pope p/p

Join and get verified by mid 2025 June 30.

p/p means past or present although in general most are eternal such as "attendee of..." Means ever

List of Nobels in a Field: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prizes_known_as_the_Nobel_or_the_highest_honors_of_a_field?wprov=sfla1

List of dynastic orders:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynastic_order?wprov=sfla1

Applies regardless of when they join but it must really be them. So you can mine history too. They don't have to be active but must at least place one bet or make one market. Also if they join, get verified, go inactive then attain the achievement it counts.

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Anyone published in Nature or Science

why isnt this one resolved yet

An official holder of a Guinness world record p/p

I don't know what p/p means but I do know someone on Manifold who holds a guinness world record

Edit: p/p means past or present... as it says in the description

@Ernie works if i share via DM?

@firstuserhere yes I just need some way to verify their id and the record

Any member of skull and bones

Can't believe no one has pointed out that this isn't verifiable except in-group.

ETA elite yes, global yes, "achievers" arguable. Would have been simpler to put "Any Whiffenpoof".

@ClubmasterTransparent how do we know the bushes were skull and bones? Or is it still not really confirmed?

@mqp are you a chess GM yet

Why are a bunch of these trading above 50% when the title is about who joins first?

@jskf it's unlinked so they all can run to end

@jskf Nobody really tried to make money here yet. If you post a claim I'll check and can resolve immediately

https://manifold.markets/CGPGrey

Verified, has over 100M YouTube views.

In the description it says they can join at any time, but the presence of answers like this at such a low percentage makes me think I am misunderstanding the question. What am I missing?

https://manifold.markets/LexFridman

Verified and has over 1M Twitter followers, but some people claim it isn't really him.

https://manifold.markets/LawrenceLessig

https://publicintelligence.net/2013-bilderberg-meeting-participant-list/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Bilderberg_Conference

He has created 1 question, is verified, and joined after this question was created.

@Eliza 🤔 , he joined 1 hour after this question was created.

I assume this question only counts people who joined the site after the question was created?

Kinda funny how the list autosorted to that order

@ByrneHobart rooting for you

Forbes 30 under 30 p/p

@Ernie Since this doesn't have the p/p it means they have to be a last edition 30u30 (any category/geography?) at time of resolution, or is any past winner fine?

@HenriThunberg ah good point i assumed it's permanent. I'll add it

TIME person of the year

I actually won it in 2006

@Conflux haha lol luckily I haven't abdicated human choice. I'm rejecting this claim.

@Ernie it would require all sentient beings who saw and heard of that issue would have to register

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