It'll happen, but only once autonomous cars account for a large majority of the VMT. The worst drivers -- the ones who are > 10x more likely to cause fatalities, will be some of the last to give up manual driving.

@DanHomerick It's just crazy nobody really talks about the issue. Once we start going down and the vast majority of deaths are in the poorer areas, do you think there might be social or legal pressure to make them switch? (or just to give them free self-driving cars for god's sake)