When will the US annual traffic fatality number go under 30k? Long term market. (2024=42k)
3
1kṀ2302046
12%
2025-2028
27%
2029-2032
20%
2033-2036
14%
2037-2040
12%
2041-2044
14%
2045, later, or never.
When will the annualized number of traffic fatalities for the USA have a value under 30k? We'll wait until it actually happens.
In this market I've tried to give longer term answers, to really clarify what view the more skeptical of traders have
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Which will be the first year the USA has less than 30k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)
Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?
36% chance
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2027?
15% chance
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2028?
30% chance
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2026?
10% chance
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2040?
67% chance
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2030?
40% chance
Fewer than 40k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
90% chance