What traits will Google's next CEO have (many traits for you to bet on!)
85
576
9.6k
2027
92%
Under 65 yo
90%
Under 60 yo
87%
Has a STEM degree of any type
82%
Is an American citizen
82%
Straight
81%
Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering
78%
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier
75%
If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)
71%
Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)
70%
Has visited or lived in China
69%
Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)
68%
Under 55 yo
67%
Speaks a foreign language
63%
Self described person of color
62%
Is married
62%
Under 50 yo
61%
Has children
60%
Has been a CEO
57%
Was not an American citizen at birth
56%
Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)

They should be the CEO of alphabet & google. If the role is split, this resolves to the CEO of Google.

It resolves upon secure announcement + 48 hours, unless there is an active takedown attempt (media investigating claims against them, etc.). If such a situation exists, we will wait 2 weeks or longer until the attacks die down.

If after that, they are still planned as the replacement CEO, it counts. If they are MIA (i.e. no updates since significant new information has been released, or people who "should know" are actively ignoring questions or not helping us understand what's happening, we would have to wait longer.)

The overall goal:

  • resolve as early as we are quite sure the person is in line to take the job

  • resolve late enough so that if the announcement comes out but then the appointment is cancelled, we won't have made a mistake.

  • if the announcement is that someone will take over in 6 months, I don't want to have to wait the entire time. If the announcement goes okay, and all seems smooth, we can resolve then. If the person later gets cancelled or drops out for health reasons, or any other reason, we will not redo the resolution. So really, this is about who the next "announced and generally accepted CEO candidate is".

  • If the person is "CEO nominee in name" but there are very clear doubts that they are actually going to do it, we will wait. Even if they are "CEO" but there is ample evidence that there is doubt they are even coming into the office, doubt that they are taking any meetings, etc. (i.e. the Ilya Sustskever situation in dec 2023), we will NOT immediately resolve YES/NO. We will attempt to wait and see "Are they actually CEO". CEO doesn't mean "a piece of paper in a vault has some ink on it" or "some bits on a hard drive change every month indicating a payment made from a company to a bank account". CEO means "the person is acting as the CEO of the company, and doing CEO things". Note that this will never be used to "invalidate" someone doing "Unconventional CEO" things such as the CEO of Burger King flipping burgers to demonstrate or learn something. It is only to exclude cases where there may be some legal/SEC definitional argument that a person is the CEO, but huge amounts of evidence that they are actually CEO-ing is missing.

  • Similarly in reverse; if someone defines his or her role as the "Cyberking of google" and acts like a CEO, and there is clearly nobody above them, they give annual presentations, lead board meetings, or whatever the CEO role evolves into, they are CEO, regardless of the actual title. That is to say, this is not a claim about the legal status of an individual in the US. This is about human organizations and who leads them.

Diversity points system, 1 point for each group they claim to or are said to belong to. Their word takes precedence; if missing, we go with what they popularly are considered.

  • ADOS

  • African

  • Woman

  • Elderly

  • Disabled

  • Overweight

  • Mental Health Issues

  • Native Peoples

  • Non-White

  • Refugee

  • LatinX

  • LGBTQ2SI+

Accents

  • I consider Elon Musk to have an accent.

  • Claudine Gay and Vivek Ramaswamy do not have accents

  • This is hard but the line is basically whether is start seriously wondering where they're from, or maybe that a movie would use that way of speaking for an American and nobody would question it

Deadline

  • Will extend as needed

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Ha, here are some ideas that GPT4 had for categories.

For him or her, or in general?

Edited to basically remove the phrase “Will be” to remove ambiguity

@Conflux thanks for letting me know, good edits. If you hadn't posted, would I have been notified? Would traders have been?

@Ernie I don't think so

Speaks a foreign language
bought Ṁ20 Speaks a foreign lan... YES

To what fluency? A few phrases? Have taken a class?

@zyc to European CEFR B2 level or more, or it is his or her native language. We'll be fairly generous even without proper test results if they have worked in the language, or majored in it, etc

Hey @traders Feel free to add your own options! Anything reasonable is fine; if not, I'll NA.

@Ernie I don't think adding answers is enabled!

@jim ah sorry, fixed.