US adopts pharmaceutical reciprocity with the UK, some/all of the EU, Japan, or Australia before 2035
US adopts pharmaceutical reciprocity with the UK, some/all of the EU, Japan, or Australia before 2035
6
130Ṁ1432035
12%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A drug approved in one of those countries has a significantly accellerated path to approval in the US. It doesn't have to be immediate.
In addition to the legal changes, this also requires at least 2 drugs to have gone through this accellerated approval process to become available in the US.
I realize this may be hard to judge. I will be relatively strict
If no legal changes from today, resolves NO
If there is a clear simple policy - "If it's okay in <other country>, it's okay in the US with minimal checks (<1 year average for first 3 drugs), YES
if "we allow some accelerated data sharing allowed to faciliate the process" or similar process which only applies to some partners or some parts of the process, such taht the first 3 drugs on average take >=1 year for approval, then NO
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Which countries will join the CPTPP trade agreement before 2030?
Will an AI be able to write a prescription for medication in the US or a EU member country by 2030?
15% chance
[Metaculus] Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?
81% chance
Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?
70% chance
Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?
29% chance
Which of the following countries will have a biobank by Feb 21, 2030?
Will any country legalize recreational use of opioids before 2036?
27% chance
Will Canada implement a national pharmacare program before 2026?
25% chance
Universal Coronavirus Vaccine released in the US by 2030?
8% chance
Will any country legalize recreational use of opioids before 2030?
24% chance