US adopts pharmaceutical reciprocity with the UK, some/all of the EU, Japan, or Australia before 2035
6
130Ṁ143
2035
12%
chance

A drug approved in one of those countries has a significantly accellerated path to approval in the US. It doesn't have to be immediate.

In addition to the legal changes, this also requires at least 2 drugs to have gone through this accellerated approval process to become available in the US.

I realize this may be hard to judge. I will be relatively strict

  • If no legal changes from today, resolves NO

  • If there is a clear simple policy - "If it's okay in <other country>, it's okay in the US with minimal checks (<1 year average for first 3 drugs), YES

  • if "we allow some accelerated data sharing allowed to faciliate the process" or similar process which only applies to some partners or some parts of the process, such taht the first 3 drugs on average take >=1 year for approval, then NO

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