The Economist "Which countries did best in 2024" results megamarket (MC UL, 71 in total)
6
51
2.8k
Dec 16
76%
The top country is not Denmark and not Greece
67%
A country not on any of the previous 3 years appears in the top 10
66%
At least 3 non-European countries are in top 10
66%
Britain beats France
66%
Germany beats France
66%
USA Beats Britain
66%
Europe has the most countries in the top 10
65%
Israel beats (Iran and Saudi and Turkey)
64%
Mexico [0% for 11th, 10% for 10th, 100% for 1st]
59%
Denmark [0% for 11th, 10% for 10th, 100% for 1st]
59%
Norway [0% for 11th, 10% for 10th, 100% for 1st]
56%
Any majority non-Christian country in top 10?
56%
Traditionally Christian country will be #1
55%
Countries from at least 6 regions [defined below] appear in the top 20
54%
Mediterranean [score = 10% * number of Mediterranean touching countries]
52%
USA vs Japan win margin [score = 10% * number of places US finishes in front of Japan, max 100% min 0%]
50%
Top country is in Europe
50%
Top 2 countries are not in Europe
50%
An Asian country appears in the top 10
50%
EU Status [score = 10%*number of EU countries in top 10]

Summary

For the last few years, in late December or early January, the Economist usually releases a chart with a title something like "which countries did the best".

Types of markets

Ranking

Above, there are multiple types of options. The first, type is like this:

  • Denmark [0% for 11th, 10% for 10th, 100% for 1st]

  • This means that the first 10 places will be scored, counting down 100% to 0%.

  • Ties resolve with the nominal value (8=, 8= => 80% for both)

A vs B

Another type is "A vs B" markets; these resolve by whether A will beat B. If A wins, 100%. If B wins, 0%. If they tie, then 50%. This is based on the ranking, and note that the Economist includes ties (in 2023, designated by a sequence of rank numbers such as "8=, 8=, 10=" which means there were two countries tied for 8th, to preserve logic, therefore 9th was skipped. If A appears in the list, and B doesn't A wins. If neither appears, then NA.

A vs B win margin

For these, we look at how many places ahead A is. If tied or behind or missing, score is 0%. If A is ahead by 1 place (for example, 1st vs 2nd place) then 10%. If by 10 or more places, score is 100%.

Best in region

Regions are defined based on this map:

So the regions are

  • North America

  • South America (including South America and the Carribean)

  • Africa

  • Middle East

  • Europe

  • Asia

  • Oceania (Oz NZ and pacific island nations)

Details on data

This chart has included factors like the following, but with some variations:

  • GDP

  • Household income per person

  • Share Prices

  • Investment

  • Public Debt to GDP Ratio

  • Core Prices

  • Employment

  • Inflation Breadth

Historical Results

Combined:

2021 results: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/which-economies-have-done-best-and-worst-during-the-pandemic/21806917

2022 results: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/12/18/2022s-unlikely-economic-winners

2023 results:

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/17/which-economy-did-best-in-2023

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bought Ṁ10 of Answer #65f41d744daf NO

Given that all their lists seem based to be drawn from OECD countries there are some easy responses.

bought Ṁ10 of A country not on any... YES

Don’t they ever list any African countries?

@NicoDelon yeah they don't list China either. It could be lack of data they trust?

@Ernie It seems to be restricted to OECD countries.