Resolves YES, I think (the market description confuses me). https://cointelegraph.com/news/sam-bankman-fried-files-appeal

Given that this market is about whether SBF "makes" an appeal, why wait for CA2 to decide the case to resolve (which could easily add another year)? Would you consider resolving "Yes" on filing of the notice of appeal, or alternatively when the appeal is fully briefed? (Either of those two things are objectively determinable and will resolve way faster.)

@d__ There's confusing language about whether the appeal is "accepted," which as a US lawyer I don't understand. But to give that and the requirement to decide the appeal some meaning, I guess bouncing the appeal on jurisdictional grounds (which ain't going to happen) would be a no? If he dies before the appeal is decided, withdraws the appeal, etc. this should probably N/A.

@Jason thanks. I am not a lawyer and you can tell. What I was going for is the appeal being accepted and the next court making some kind of decision, rather than rejecting it and sbf's only choice being to go up a level if he still wants to argue.

From looking at the news, it looks like he is intending to file a brief but hasn't done so yet?

Is it guaranteed that as long as he files in time, he'll get some sort of answer from the second circuit?

@Ernie Yes, a first appeal is “as of right” in the federal system, meaning the Second Circuit will absolutely rule on SBF’s appeal so long as he (1) actually pursues an appeal, and (2) doesn’t mess up something procedurally (like filing the notice of appeal incorrectly). SBF has already filed a notice of appeal: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.590940/gov.uscourts.nysd.590940.428.0.pdf

If your goal is to peg resolution to the court actually doing something, a reasonable point could also be when the appeal is argued (or taken on submission, meaning that the court accepts the briefs without argument; there is essentially zero chance this case is not argued, I’m just mentioning as it’s theoretically possible). That’s objectively determinable—in both cases, including taking the case on submission—and avoids the need to wait for an actual decision, which could take an extra year or so.

(I have a U.S. JD and clerked for a Second Circuit judge.)

@d__ Agreed. And after timely/correctly filing the notice of appeal, he'd have to mess up really bad procedurally to forfeit the appeal. For the non-lawyers, a (mostly) correct, timely notice of appeal is of jurisdictional significance in the US -- meaning it is necessary to give the court of appeals power to decide the case. Almost all other procedural screw-ups are non-jurisdictional in nature, and it would take a lot to get the appellate court to throw out the entire appeal. Among other reasons like basic fairness to a convicted appellant, having your lawyer screw up that badly is basically a guarantee of finding ineffective assistance of counsel in a 2255 action, the remedy for which is . . . basically being allowed a do-over appeal.

(Source: I clerked for a judge on a different circuit, not the Second, but the basic rules are the same in all circuits.)

We could also use one on whether he appeals further to the supreme court, and whether each stage he prevails in the appeal.