OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027
6
33
130
2027
36%
chance

1. There wil lbe an LLM released in China which many Chinese people can use (possibly with the normal ID verification, etc.). It should be in broad release, either to the public or available in large companies or universities.

2. It will be censored according to the contemporary Chinese CCP Censorship regime.

3. Its supporting AI technology is provided or supported by Microsoft or openAI

If OpenAI / MS split, the claim covers both of them.

If OpenAI tech goes open source/or is stolen and China or some other country runs it, without MS/OpenAI cooperation, that does not make this market resolve Yes.

If a Chinese entity pays OpenAI for tech but runs it themselves, including running the censorship part, that qualifies as YES

Get Ṁ200 play money
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predicts NO

The first thing AI needs to do is generate spam blog posts. By the time AI matters the spam would be so massive.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

They haven't yet gotten basic functionality down.

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