Global transition to veganism MegaMarket | Manifold

Global transition to veganism MegaMarket

3

155Ṁ60

2030

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

66%

I can buy non animal derived protein by the pound on Amazon or other online source for less than 20$ by mid 2027

48%

Us president mentions reducing meat, vegetarianism, vegan or similar in a sotu through the early Jan 2030 speech

34%

Animal based beef produced in the US down by 50% in tons, by mid 2029

WIP but rules and claims will be added

Thesis

Chemistry tech will advance so that food will become available which is vegan, healthier, cheaper than what we have now. Almost as a a side effect, large parts of the world will become more vegetarian/vegan even without any conscious desire.

This may cover moral reasoning but primarily will cover tech. Also, it's not absolute so "conversion to veganism" will generally be treated statistically, not as a sacred/sensitive absolute state of purity.

Rules

All currency is in ppp, inflation adjusted Jan 1 2024 USD

In general I want to make interpretation as meaningful and easy as possible, avoiding holes and corners

Global transition to Veganism

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Global vegan food market exceeds $40 billion by December 31, 2025

Average price premium of plant-based meat alternatives vs. conventional meat falls below 30% by July 2025

Beyond Meat announces a new product line before September 8, 2025

Will >50% of the United States population identify as vegan by 2080?

Will more than 15% of the US population identify as vegan by 2030?

Will I still be vegan by the end of 2026?

Will vegan shrimp be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028?

Will half the UK population be vegan before 2030?

When will the meat substitute market reach 10% of the traditional meat market of any country?

Fake meat will have 10% or more of the meat market share in the US by 2035

Related questions

Global vegan food market exceeds $40 billion by December 31, 2025

Average price premium of plant-based meat alternatives vs. conventional meat falls below 30% by July 2025

Beyond Meat announces a new product line before September 8, 2025

Will >50% of the United States population identify as vegan by 2080?

Will more than 15% of the US population identify as vegan by 2030?

Will I still be vegan by the end of 2026?

Will vegan shrimp be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028?

Will half the UK population be vegan before 2030?

When will the meat substitute market reach 10% of the traditional meat market of any country?

Fake meat will have 10% or more of the meat market share in the US by 2035

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