Democrats nominate a straight white male for president in 2028
Democrats nominate a straight white male for president in 2028
4
100Ṁ352028
49%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
He will be the official Democratic nominee for president that year. Presumptive isn't enough, he had to be nominated.
Will resolve based on the state 24 hours after nomination or later if there is an unknown/chaotic situation during that time period
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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Will the 2028 Democratic nominee be a straight white male?
64% chance
Will the 2028 Democratic nominee be a white man?
60% chance
Will the 2028 Democratic Nominee be a white male?
61% chance