CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest?
26
5.1k
2035
28%
Tim Cook at Apple
59%
Mark Zuckerberg at Meta
27%
Andy Jassy at Amazon
3%
Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway
19%
Sundar Pichai at Google
21%
Doug McMillon at Walmart
24%
Dario Amodei at Anthropic
16%
Andrew Wilson at Electrinic Arts
16%
Mary Barra at General Motors
16%
David Solomon at Goldman Sachs
16%
Pat Gelsinger at Intel
42%
Jensen Huang at Nvidia
8%
C. C. Wei at TSMC
16%
Ma Huateng at Tencent
33%
Elon Musk at Tesla
22%
Shantanu Narayen at Adobe
9%
Bob Iger at Disney
8%
Linda Yaccarino at Twitter
18%
Masayoshi Son at SoftBank

As CEOs get removed or quit, we'll take them out and mark them 0. Once we get down to just three left, they will all get marked as 100% and the market will be over!

Out means not CEO anymore. That includes the company being dissolved, bought, etc.

If the company splits, to survive they must be leader of the largest part.

If the company is bought they can only survive by being the CEO of the resulting company.

If the company changes name, no issue as long as they're still CEO.

If the company has no CEO, they must at least still be the clear single solo leader.

Note: this market type does NOT auto-adjust percentages. Logically, the total of the above should be 300%, but it won't be. This means that there is lots of likely arbitrage to do on this market most of the time, to the extent that you have tight estimates you believe in.

Prices will not auto-adjust so you'll have to control arbitrage yourselves.

Update: one gone, 19 left.

Part of the 2023 CEO Tontine Markets:

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-three-of-these-tw

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-one-of-these-19-c

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-three-of-these-tw-66fee6b25cc1

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Down to 459%

Ages via chatGPT not confirmed:

Andy Jassy - 55

Bob Iger - 71

Doug McMillon - 57

Dario Amodei - 40

Elon Musk - 52

Jensen Huang - 60

Linda Yaccarino - 60

Ma Huateng - 52

Mark Zuckerberg - 39

Masayoshi Son - 66

Mary Barra - 62

Pat Gelsinger - 62

Shantanu Narayen - 60

Sundar Pichai - 51

Tim Cook - 63

Warren Buffett - 93

We're at 590%+ for 300% worth of survivors...

It should be fun watching the prices jump as people drop out.

Also WOW does the auto-generated art for this one slap