Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?
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From https://metaculus.com/questions/15964/biggest-companies-in-2050/

At Berkshire Hathaway's 2021 annual shareholders' meeting, Warren Buffett famously highlighted the importance of understanding the uncertainty around individual stocks by comparing the top 20 global stocks in 1989 to those in 2021. Buffett emphasized that none of the companies on the 1989 list were present on the 2021 list at the time of the meeting. The 1989 list featured a heavy concentration of Japanese companies, reflecting the strong performance of the Japanese economy at that time. In contrast, the list from 2021 revealed a significant shift towards technology and innovation, with companies like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon dominating the rankings. Below is the list of the top 20 companies worldwide by market cap in 1989.

Ranking Company Market Cap Country 1 Industrial Bank of Japan 104.29 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 2 Sumitomo Bank 73.30 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 3 Fuji Bank 69.40 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 4 Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank 64.04 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 5 Exxon Corp 63.84 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 6 General Electric USA 58.19 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 7 Tokyo Electric Power 56.50 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 8 IBM Corp 55.66 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 9 Toyota Motor Corp. 53.25 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 10 American Tel & Tel 48.95 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 11 Nomura Securities 46.81 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 12 Royal Dutch Petroleum 41.00 B πŸ‡³πŸ‡± Netherlands 13 Philip Morris Cos 38.58 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 14 Nippon Steel 36.59 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 15 Tokai Bank 35.35 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 16 Mitsui Bank 34.99 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 17 Matsushita Elect Ind'l 33.36 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 18 Kansai Electric Power 33.13 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 19 Hitachi LTD 32.21 B πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 20 Merck & Co 30.75 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA

It remains an open question whether this pattern will repeat over the next decades. In 2023, the top companies in the world include a diverse mix of industries, with a very heavy country-focus on the USA. Technology giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon continue to dominate, with other sectors like healthcare and finance also represented. As of April 2023, the following companies are in the top 20:

Ranking Name Market Cap Country 1 Apple $2.613 T πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 2 Microsoft $2.129 T πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 3 Saudi Aramco $1.926 T πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¦ S. Arabia 4 Alphabet (Google) $1.396 T πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 5 Amazon $1.050 T πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 6 Berkshire Hathaway $706.28 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 7 NVIDIA $660.92 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 8 Tesla $586.32 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 9 Meta Platforms (Facebook) $574.24 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 10 Johnson & Johnson $517.39 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 11 Visa $491.86 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 12 LVMH $491.42 B πŸ‡«πŸ‡· France 13 UnitedHealth $477.42 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 14 Exxon Mobil $472.43 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 15 TSMC $452.22 B πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡Ό Taiwan 16 Tencent $438.67 B πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China 17 JPMorgan Chase $406.68 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 18 Walmart $400.25 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA 19 Novo Nordisk $379.17 B πŸ‡©πŸ‡° Denmark 20 Eli Lilly $356.87 B πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USA

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