Longevity Expert Death Pool: which longevity expert will die the youngest?
24
325á¹€1636
2074
10%
Peter Attia
11%
Michael Greger
18%
Andrew Huberman
11%
Bryan Johnson
23%
Crissman Loomis
11%
Michael Lustgarten
6%
Rhonda Patrick
9%
David Sinclair
1.3%
Other

Many longevity experts happily advise how to live forever. Will they? I've picked eight longevity experts (including myself). Which one of them will die at the youngest age?

Current ages:

Background:

As part of my longevity research on unaging.com, I've been reviewing other researchers' longevity recommendations and rating them for expected life impact. I'm interested in the wisdom of crowds on who is the most wrong and thus likely to die the youngest. Earning mana from my research would be a bonus. 💰

Details:

  • Younger age is determinate, not first to die. Age at the time of death decides who died the youngest, even if an older person dies before them.

  • No foul play. If murdered, that person is no longer valid.

  • If all experts live past 3/23/2074, then question resolves to Other.

For those with published works, I've reviewed their approach:

Bryan Johnson

Peter Attia

Michael Greger

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lol

Awesome! @SurvivalBias , thanks for betting in my market. Your odds for my being first to die are higher than my estimate. What habits should I change to lower those odds?

@CrissmanLoomis it's less about any one specific habit and more about lack of understanding of medical science in general, and observational studies and their massive limitations in particular, that I've seen on your blog. The two specifics I would point out is the (relative) disregard for cholesterol, and the insistence that walking a lot is a silver bullet. But it's really mostly about epistemological humility and epistemological hygiene in general.

(Yeah, I agree Sinclair is probably worse on all counts and I don't know about some of the others. But it's your market, not any of theirs.)

How is the market supposed to resolve if you die? (As in, who will click the "Crissman has died" button?)

@JuliusSimonelli Will be up to the mods to update!

@LuisCostigan Rhonda is a bold choice, given she's the only female on the list, and women naturally live longer. Reasoning?

sold á¹€3 YES

@CrissmanLoomis I remember thinking exactly that, and must have misclicked.

@diadematus I hadn't come across him before. Good stuff. Anyway, he's about 10 years younger than the rest of the pool, so I'd rather leave him off this one anyway since he would delay the confirmation of the youngest death by ten years or so.

Great question. One note: He's better known as Andrew Huberman.

@kenmichaels Right! Corrected. Thanks.

bought á¹€15 NO

@CrissmanLoomis Not corrected on my side fwiw

@LuisCostigan Fixed. It took me a while to realize you were talking about the list, not the birthdays screen shot.

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