Will AGI, as fellow "child of the Universe," spontaneously experience bodhicitta, a concept in Buddhism referring to the mind that strives towards awakening and compassion for the benefit of all sentient beings?
The market will resolve as 'Yes' if, by the end of 2050, there is a consensus in the scientific community or credible evidence demonstrating that an AGI has developed or exhibited qualities akin to bodhicitta spontaneously -- e.g. without any prompting / mentions of the concept in its training distribution (basically an experiment like this one that instead omits any mention of Buddhism or enlightenment from the training corpus)
The market will resolve as 'No' if no such development or evidence exists by that time.
The market will resolve as 'N/A' if AGI has not yet been achieved by 2050.
Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that RLHF and training data are not considered valid alignment techniques for the purposes of this market. Resolution requires that AGI follows bodhicitta tenets independently of training or RLHF influence.
1,000@PeterSmythe my bad, misunderstood. It didn’t happen for most humans but began to post-Buddha. So base rate is low, and subsequently skewed by training data. AI certainly wouldn’t be discovering this concept in a vacuum. The resolution criteria is more about whether it follows this tenet independently of our ability to align it. I don’t regard RLHF and training as valid alignment techniques in that they don’t provably guarantee it.