This market resolves to YES if any major AI lab officially releases a new or significantly upgraded Large Language Model (LLM) between May 17, 2026, and May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.


For this market to resolve YES, the release must come from one of the following organizations:

• Frontier Labs: OpenAI, Google (DeepMind), Anthropic, Meta.

• Key Open-Weights/International Players: Mistral AI, Alibaba Cloud (Qwen), DeepSeek, xAI (Grok), Microsoft.
  
  🟢 WOULD COUNT (YES Resolution):

  • Google officially releases Gemini 3.5 Nano-Bana Pro. (A clear, distinct new version bump or new model tier available via API/AI Studio).

  • Google launches an experimental preview model named gemini-nano-bana-pro-3-preview on Google AI Studio that traders can actively test.

  • Meta drops Llama 4-Bana-8B open-weights on Hugging Face.

• 🔴 WOULD NOT COUNT (NO Resolution):

  • Google publishes a research paper about a future model called "Nano-Bana Pro 3" but does not release the weights, an API, or a web interface for it before June 1st.

  • An independent developer on Hugging Face uploads a fine-tune called Google-Nano-Bana-Pro-3-Uncensored. (Only official releases by the parent labs count).

  • Google renames an existing model (e.g., renaming Gemini 1.5 Pro to Gemini Nano-Bana Pro 3) without actually changing the underlying model architecture or capabilities.

  • Google pushes a minor update notice saying "We improved latency on Gemini 1.5 Pro" without changing the version number or model string.