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MANIFOLD
Will Bryan Johnson discover a cure to autoimmune gastritis before 2040?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ89
2039
40%
chance

Bryan Johnson was recently diagnosed with autoimmune gastritis, an incurable disease. He claims he will attempt to develop a cure.

This resolves to yes if all of the following are true:

  • Johnson claims to have been cured by a specific therapy or set of therapies

  • Johnson is the first person known to have been cured of AIG by that therapy or therapies

  • Someone else (not affiliated with Johnson) is also cured by the same therapy or therapies, as confirmed by a reliable source such as a scientific journal or hospital

    • If the therapy is personalized (e.g. tailored to the patient's genome), then a someone else being cured by a personalized therapy developed by the same approach counts

  • Update 2026-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the "someone else is also cured" criterion:

    • The other person must be actually cured (not just improved/reduced symptoms)

    • The other person should be not affiliated with Johnson

    • A reputable source must confirm their cure

For Johnson himself, the creator will give him the benefit of the doubt on his own cure claim, given he funds his own doctors.

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does it have to be a general cure? It could be a super specific mRNA/crispr-based cure tailored to Johnson himself.

@Hakari In that case I would consider the cure to be the method for producing a tailored therapy. It doesn't need to be a general cure for everyone with AIG. However, someone else needs to be cured with the same method.

How does this resolve if Bryan Johnson claims he and the other person is cured, but experts say he's over stating it and the condition is just reduced, and the other person doesn't make any public statements?

@TheAllMemeingEye There is really no way to know if Johnson himself is cured since he pays all his own doctors, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt for that.

The other person needs to be actually cured. I would be looking for someone who isn't affiliated with Johnson and for whom a reputable source says they are cured.