Resolution criteria

The next Italian general election will occur no later than 22 December 2027. The market closing date will be moved when the election date is announced. The market resolves based on the percentage of votes the Partito Democratico receives in the national popular vote for the Chamber of Deputies, as reported by the Italian Ministry of Interior (Ministero dell'Interno). Resolution will use the official final results published by the Ministry of Interior.

Background

In the 2022 general election, the Democratic Party received 19.0% of the vote, making it the leading party in the centre-left coalition. Since March 2023, Elly Schlein has been the chairperson of the PD, and under her leadership, the party has sought to expand its base and attract younger voters. Current polling trends show the Partito Democratico at 22%, behind Fratelli d'Italia at 29.9%.

Considerations

Italy uses a mixed-member majoritarian representation system, with 147 deputies elected in single-member constituencies by plurality and 245 in multi-member constituencies by national proportional representation. The popular vote percentage may differ significantly from seat allocation due to this electoral system.