Background

The current Italian government, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, came to power in October 2022. Her right-wing coalition includes Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy), Lega (League), and Forza Italia. Italy has historically experienced frequent government turnover, with the average government lasting less than 15 months since World War II.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• The current Meloni government remains in power until the natural end of the legislative term in 2027

• A technical reshuffle of ministers while maintaining the same governing coalition and Prime Minister will not affect resolution

This market will resolve NO if:

• The government falls before 2027 due to:

  • A successful no-confidence vote

  • Prime Minister Meloni's resignation

  • Coalition breakdown leading to new elections

  • Any other event that leads to a change in government