Will the current Italian government complete its full term until 2027?
6
100Ṁ131
2027
29%
chance

Background

The current Italian government, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, came to power in October 2022. Her right-wing coalition includes Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy), Lega (League), and Forza Italia. Italy has historically experienced frequent government turnover, with the average government lasting less than 15 months since World War II.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

  • The current Meloni government remains in power until the natural end of the legislative term in 2027

  • A technical reshuffle of ministers while maintaining the same governing coalition and Prime Minister will not affect resolution

This market will resolve NO if:

  • The government falls before 2027 due to:

    • A successful no-confidence vote

    • Prime Minister Meloni's resignation

    • Coalition breakdown leading to new elections

    • Any other event that leads to a change in government

Politics
World
Geopolitics
Elections: World
Italy
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the current Italian government last for the entire term of office?
26% chance
Will the italian government last for the entire term of office?
27% chance
Will an Italian conservative party remain in office until 2027 ?
76% chance
Will the Current Spanish Coalition of PSOE+SUMAR Govern Spain Until 2027, Completing a Full 4-Year Term?
71% chance
Will Meloni's constitutional reform of electoral laws pass in Italy before 2027?
17% chance
Will Italy be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?
91% chance
Will Italy be a member state of the European Union by the start of 2030?
91% chance
Who will be Italy's next Prime Minister?
Will the current Israeli government last ~a full term?
23% chance
Poland: Will current Parliament serve a full term?
19% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules