Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Giorgia Meloni is appointed Prime Minister of Italy to serve a new term following a national general election or parliamentary confidence vote held before January 1, 2028.

This market resolves to NO if:

• A national general election or prime ministerial appointment occurs before January 1, 2028, and someone other than Giorgia Meloni is appointed Prime Minister.

• Giorgia Meloni resigns or leaves office without securing a new mandate via a general election or formal government reappointment before January 1, 2028.

• No general election or new term appointment takes place before January 1, 2028.

Official announcements from the Italian Presidency of the Republic (Quirinale) and major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters) will serve as the primary source of truth.

Background

Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy party, assumed office as Prime Minister of Italy in October 2022 following the 2022 general election. Under the Italian constitution, the Prime Minister is formally appointed by the President of the Republic following parliamentary elections, rather than directly elected by voters. The next Italian general election must be held no later than December 2027. In October 2026, Italy's parliament approved an electoral system overhaul that awards majority bonus seats to any coalition winning more than 42% of the vote.