As of December 2025, do you have a higher level of trust in information from Wikipedia or from an AI/LLM?
54
resolved Dec 20
Wikipedia
AI/LLM
Dead Heat
See Results
Explain why in the comments for bonus points.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will Wikipedia accept prediction markets as a source before 2030?
30% chance
Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?
22% chance
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
40% chance
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2040?
72% chance
At the end of 2030 will Manifold users think Wikipedia has changed for the better compared to 2020?
56% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
79% chance
An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?
47% chance
Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?
23% chance
Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?
72% chance
Will Wikipedia still exist in 2100?
67% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Wikipedia accept prediction markets as a source before 2030?
30% chance
Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?
22% chance
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
40% chance
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2040?
72% chance
At the end of 2030 will Manifold users think Wikipedia has changed for the better compared to 2020?
56% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
79% chance
An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?
47% chance
Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?
23% chance
Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?
72% chance
Will Wikipedia still exist in 2100?
67% chance

