What will be the first question or prompt to produce interesting debate between Yudkowsky and Destiny?

126

5kṀ78k

resolved Sep 26

100%99.9%

Whether the FDA should be abolished

0.0%

AI risk

0.0%

How to culturally institute/enforce a "put your money where your mouth is" ethos

0.0%

Moral Claims are Truth-Apt

0.0%

Dogwarts

0.0%

Are newborns conscious

0.0%

How to bring manifold to a larger audience while dispelling skepticism?

0.0%

trajectory vs outcome

0.0%

Astronomy

0.0%

Norms about honesty.

0.0%

For the purposes of raising the sanity waterline, is it better to focus on broad mass market outreach (Destiny's approach), or targeted interventions on the most receptive parties (Eliezer's approach)?

0.0%

Should public outreach to normie voters on AI and other EA topics be a much higher priority than it is now?

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Police rebooting

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Are chickens conscious

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Tax policies should be decided by prediction markets saying which policy will increase GDP the most

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Obamna

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he misspoke

0.0%

Calories-In-Calories-Out model of weight loss

0.0%Other

When Yudkowsky and Destiny debate at Manifest 2023, what question or prompt will be the first to produce interesting/fun discussion between them? For the Bounty rather than Prediction form see https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/at-manifest-2023-what-questionsprom

At Manifest 2023, what questions/prompts will produce useful/fun debate between Yudkowsky and Destiny on Saturday?

Yudkowsky and Destiny are scheduled to debate at Manifest 2023 and don't have much in the way of particular topics scheduled. What questions/prompts will produce interesting debates or disagreements between them?

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Eliezer Yudkowsky

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@EliezerYudkowsky I'm going to unresolve this in order to undo the bugged, double resolution payouts. Don't re-resolve it if it appears to be unresolved. We will figure out what to do about it.

As an FYI to the rest of the traders, this market was resolved twice due to a bug, so unresolving will undo the duplicate resolution payouts. We'll figure out how to resolve it again without paying out a second (third?) time.

@ian My mysterious 2k profit just went away so probably everything was solved

@ian wait my profit graph doesnt make sense anymore because now im down 3k even though my random profit spike was only 2k

I think something is still glitched here.

@Joshua Will take a look tomorrow!

Interesting; I dropped by 400+ mana even though my total profit on this market was only 52. (no other markets resolved during this time)

@LinchuanZhang I had a similar odd drop

I'm down 30k

Okay yeah this suggests that although this question is marked as resolved, our mana is still tied up in it and what was extra profit before has now been reversed into incorrect losses.