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MANIFOLD
Will an AI company win a Nobel Prize by 2127?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ35
2126
65%
chance

This includes both winning as an organization for discoveries in AI and sharing the prize with researchers who used AI products. All commonly recognized Nobel Prizes count, including economics. If a company has many products besides AI and wins for something else, this only resolves yes if one of the two scenarios above occur.

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Would the prizes for alphafold count? And if not, why not?

When you say “this includes X and Y” do you mean “as an organisation” and “researchers who used AI products” must both happen, or either can happen to satisfy the criteria. The “researchers who used AI products” seems like a bad criteria as it will be satisfied by a researcher using say ChtGPT to look over their work before submitting a paper, which I don’t think matches your intention for the market.