Rover: some kind of permanent robotic system, generally comparable to lunar or Martian rovers, but not limited to specific designs. Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Rapid failure (like the Soviet Venus landers) would count against the "permanent" requirement in the rover definition Preponderance of media coverage can be used to distinguish a "crash landing" from a successful "landing" if ambiguous

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 68% chance (3 traders, as of May 10, 2026).

Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?

Ṁ100Ṁ94

2051

68%

chance

ALL

Rover: some kind of permanent robotic system, generally comparable to lunar or Martian rovers, but not limited to specific designs.

Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Rapid failure (like the Soviet Venus landers) would count against the "permanent" requirement in the rover definition
- Preponderance of media coverage can be used to distinguish a "crash landing" from a successful "landing" if ambiguous

Market context

Space

SpaceX

Commercial spaceflight

Space exploration

Artemis program

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We sent like a dozen missions there decades ago, the heat defeated them quite quickly, but later ones took a little longer to succumb, so more data got transmitted back. Nobody has tried since.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@AlanTennant Rapid failure would count against "permanent". Preponderance of media coverage can be used to distinguish "crash" from "land" if in doubt.