Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the outcomes of Starship S37 currently slated to launch on Starship flight 10

• Blows up during ground testing: Resolves "Yes" if Ship 37 experiences an explosion or catastrophic failure during any ground test prior to launch.

• Gets to SECO (Second Engine Cutoff): Resolves "Yes" if Ship 37 successfully reaches the planned Second Engine Cutoff during its flight.

• Successfully deploys payload: Resolves "Yes" if Ship 37 successfully deploys its payload during the mission. Starlink simulators (Dumblinks) used for testing the payload deploy mechanism also count as payload.

• Completes in-space relight: Resolves "Yes" if Ship 37 successfully restarts its Raptor engine(s) while in space.

• Survives reentry: Resolves "Yes" if Ship 37 remains intact after reentering Earth's atmosphere.

• Soft splashdown: Resolves "Yes" if Ship 37 achieves a controlled, non-destructive splashdown in the designated ocean area.

Background

Starship Flight 10 is the tenth test flight of SpaceX's Starship launch vehicle, featuring Ship 37 and Booster 16. The mission is scheduled for August 4, 2025, from Starbase, Texas. The flight aims to test several critical objectives, including in-space engine relight, payload deployment, and controlled reentry and splashdown. (en.wikipedia.org)

Previous flights have encountered various challenges. For instance, Flight 8 experienced engine shutdowns leading to loss of control, and Flight 9 faced issues with payload deployment and attitude control. These incidents have informed design and operational improvements for subsequent missions. (en.wikipedia.org, en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

The loss of Ship 36 during ground testing on June 18, 2025, due to a composite overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV) failure, has led to the selection of Ship 37 for Flight 10. This incident underscores the importance of ground testing and may influence the testing protocols for Ship 37. (nextspaceflight.com)

• Update 2025-08-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Ground testing window: For the "Blows up during ground testing" outcome, "ground testing" includes all prelaunch activities up to T=0 (including fueling/countdown). Any explosion before T=0 resolves this as Yes.

• Update 2025-08-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the "Blows up during ground testing" outcome, only an actual explosion before T=0 counts. Non-explosive issues (including a catastrophic failure without an explosion) that lead SpaceX to scrub S37 resolve this outcome NO.