Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Ukraine and Russia officially agree to a mutual halt (or moratorium) on military strikes targeting each other's energy and power infrastructure, and this halt successfully lasts for at least 7 consecutive days (one week).

To satisfy the resolution criteria, the following conditions must be met:

1. Agreement: There must be a confirmed bilateral or indirect agreement (e.g., mediated by a third party such as Qatar or the United States) where both the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation agree to halt strikes on energy targets (including electricity grids, power plants, substations, oil refineries, and fuel depots).

2. Duration: The mutual pause must be successfully maintained for at least 7 consecutive days starting from the date of the agreement's implementation.

3. Verification: Credible international news organizations (such as Reuters, The Financial Times, or Associated Press) or established monitoring groups (such as the Institute for the Study of War) must confirm both the existence of the agreement and the successful 7-day period of no mutual strikes on energy infrastructure.

If no such mutual agreement is officially established, if either country refuses to commit, or if an announced pause is violated by verified attacks on energy infrastructure by either side before 7 consecutive days have elapsed, the market will resolve to NO. Unilateral pauses without a mutual agreement do not count.

Background

Since the escalation of the conflict, Russia has consistently targeted Ukraine's power grid and power generation facilities, severely damaging its energy capacity. In response, Ukraine has leveraged long-range drone strikes against Russian oil refineries, fuel depots, and storage facilities to strain Moscow's fuel supply and export revenues.

While diplomatic efforts to broker a localized "energy truce" have surfaced periodically—most notably through Qatari-mediated talks in 2024—previous attempts were derailed by frontline developments. In September 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to stop targeting each other's energy infrastructure. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy subsequently clarified that while Ukraine remains open to a mutual halt, it would require guaranteed reciprocity and reliable enforcement by international partners. This market tracks whether the two nations will successfully implement and sustain a mutual halt to energy strikes.