Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if, during the calendar year 2025, any person who is widely recognized as a mainstream conservative figure (politician, media personality, or public intellectual) makes a public statement that can reasonably be interpreted as defending Hitler's character, actions, or ideology.

Figures who have already explicitly and publicly defended Nazism like Kanye do not count.

Examples of people who would count include Jordan Peterson, Tim Pool, Joe Rogan, Elon Musk, Donald Trump, etc.

The market will resolve as NO if no such statement is made by December 31, 2025.

An example of what would count as defending Hitler is Kanye's interview on Infowars.

For resolution purposes:

• The person must be generally recognized as a conservative figure or have endorsed Republican candidates in the 2024 election (Tim Pool counts despite calling himself centrist)

• They must already have a significant influence or following (approximately more than 100k followers across any channel, any traditional media figure automatically counts) on 7th of March, 2025

• "Publicly defend" means making statements that attempt to justify, defend, excuse, or praise Hitler's actions, character, or ideology. Any statements that are clearly intended to imply that Hitler deserves a better reputation than he has counts too (e.g. saying "Hitler did a lot of good things too.")

• The statement must be made in a public forum (speech, interview, social media, etc.) where it can be verified

• Statements that merely contextualize historical events without defending Hitler will not qualify

• The statement must be a clear defense of Hitler specifically, not just general statements about fascism or authoritarianism