Resolution Criteria
This market will track the number of times Trump changes direction on tariff levels during the 2025 calendar year. Specifically:
Each official change in direction of tariff levels counts as one instance of a flip-flop.
Announcements count. The tariffs do not have to be implemented. An announcement to increase tariffs followed by an announcement to cancel the previous announcement counts as a flip flop.
Merely suggesting that it might happen doesn't count.
A flip-flop occurs when Trump officially changes course on a previously established tariff position (raising after lowering, or lowering after raising).
If Trump makes similar directional changes for multiple distinct countries, each will count as a separate flip-flop.
Example: If Trump imposes a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, later reduces it to 10%, and then increases it to 20%, this would count as 2 flip-flops. If he does the same with Mexican goods, that would add 2 more flip-flops, for a total of 4.
The market will track flip-flops from January 1, 2025, through December 31, 2025.
Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Initial Tariff Creation: Initial creation of new tariffs (i.e., going from 0 to a set tariff level) does not count as a flip-flop.
Announcement of Delay: Announcing a delay does count as a flip-flop.
Current Count Breakdown:
1 month delay on Canada and Mexico announced in February: +2 flip-flops
Retraction of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel on March 12: +1 flip-flop
These points update the resolution criteria.
1,000Initial creations do not count.
Announcing a delay does count.
Current count:
1 month delay on Canada and Mexico announced in Feb: +2
Retraction of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel on March 12th: +1
I think the current count is 3.
Since the initial criteria was unclear, I will sell my positions before resolving.
@EdisonYi So if I were being super pedantic, I could argue that delays should either count as 0 or 2. Either it is no change or it is first a retraction and then a reinstatement, which should each be a flip?
But I am fine with counting them as 1, as long as it is clear :)