Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Miguel Díaz-Canel is removed from power before January 1, 2030, through any means including death, resignation, coup, or forced removal. This includes loss of either his position as President of Cuba or First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba (whichever he holds at the time). Resolution will be determined by credible international news sources reporting his departure from power.

Background

Díaz-Canel has served as the 8th First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba since 2021 and as the 17th president of Cuba since 2019, holding the most powerful position in the Cuban government as First Secretary. He was re-elected by the National Assembly for a second term in April 2023 with 97.66% backing. The 2019 constitution limited the President to two consecutive five-year terms. Díaz-Canel will hold the presidency until April 2028. The ninth Party Congress will be held between April 16 and 19, 2026, and the current first secretary is expected to be reelected for another five years, until April 2031.