Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Miguel Díaz-Canel is removed from power before January 1, 2030, through any means including death, resignation, coup, or forced removal. This includes loss of either his position as President of Cuba or First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba (whichever he holds at the time). Resolution will be determined by credible international news sources reporting his departure from power.
Background
Díaz-Canel has served as the 8th First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba since 2021 and as the 17th president of Cuba since 2019, holding the most powerful position in the Cuban government as First Secretary. He was re-elected by the National Assembly for a second term in April 2023 with 97.66% backing. The 2019 constitution limited the President to two consecutive five-year terms. Díaz-Canel will hold the presidency until April 2028. The ninth Party Congress will be held between April 16 and 19, 2026, and the current first secretary is expected to be reelected for another five years, until April 2031.
1,000I'm hearing a lot of noise of a supposed transitional government being negotiated between the US and Cuba, said transition would be coordinated by Alejandro Castro Espín, son of Raul Castro.
None of this has been confirmed by any trusted news sources and its barely speculations but I've heard it from about 3 different people on the internet. Additional to these claims I've read that the communist regime would flee to Russia and free elections would be established in less than a year.
https://www.laprensa.hn/mundo/hijo-de-raul-el-negociador-secreto-de-cuba-con-eua-FALP1056210?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.elcolombiano.com/internacional/cuba-fidel-castro-alejandro-castro-cia-mexico-estados-unidos-dialogos-BD33305015
https://x.com/DeniseMeadeG/status/2018686902937727350
I couldn't really find articles in english for you guys, to me this shows how speculative and unconfirmed these claims are but you never know.
@traders
“The collapse lies in the imperial mindset, but not in the mindset of the Cubans, ...” “I know we are going to live through difficult times, but we will overcome them together with creative resilience.” - President of Cuba Diaz Canel on the 5th of February at a press confernce
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article314588864.html
@traders
PERSONAL OPINION:
It’s very rare for Cuba to hold a press conference like this, and due to the deterioration of relations between the US and Cuba, the collapse of the electrical supply, and a plethora of other problems, people were expecting a major announcement such as democratization, a change in leadership, or anything of substance that would indicate change. Instead, we got a staged, prerecorded press conference with zero confrontational questions that resembles more of a propaganda event rather than an actual press conference.