Background Germany's government formation process typically involves complex coalition negotiations between multiple parties. After the 2021 federal election, it took about 2.5 months to form a government, while the 2017 process took nearly 6 months. The next federal elections are scheduled for February 2025.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

• A new government is officially sworn in within 45 days (1.5 months) of the election date

• The government has secured a parliamentary majority through formal coalition agreements

This market will resolve NO if:

• Government formation takes longer than 45 days

• No stable government is formed within 45 days (e.g., if only a caretaker government is in place)

For resolution purposes, "stable government" means:

• A chancellor has been elected by the Bundestag

• Coalition agreements have been formally signed

• Ministers have been appointed and sworn in

Considerations

• Germany's political landscape is increasingly fragmented, with multiple parties needed to form majorities

• Recent trends show government formation taking longer due to more complex coalition negotiations

• The rise of alternative parties and changing voter preferences may further complicate the formation process in 2025