Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before March 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M subsidy added]
Apr 2

Resolves YES if in my opionion there has been a major public-facing breakthrough in AI equivilent to the launch of ChatGPT or Midjourney/StableDiffusion. I wont participate or trade in this market unless its to make a quick buck off some volatility (I wont hold a position at market close at the very least)

This market is more likely to resolve YES if:

*There is a development in AI that is being talked about by people I know in real life who aren't that interested in AI such as my parents or my brother

* There is a development in AI that I personally am very excited about because it seems like a big leap forward

This market is more likely to resolve NO if:

*The situation is largely the same as today regarding consumer facing AIs. ie Midjourney still uses discord and has only slightly improved if at all. ChatGPT is largely the same. Googles AIs aren't talked about by normal people. And any new products are niche and uknown to the public

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alextes avatar
Alexbought Ṁ100 of NO

If people are buying YES on the ChatGPT “hear, see and speak” news, I’d say I can see where you’re coming from, this may well be discussed by the general public. Because it feels like a big step. Still, seen through the capability lens, computer vision, speech recognition and voice synthesis are far from leaps in capability in my opinion.

Curious how OP feels about this.

dominic avatar
Dominic de Bettencourtpredicts NO

@alextes Not OP, but at least to me this doesn't feel like a huge leap forward, I don't feel like it enables a ton of new use cases (and I haven't heard people talking about it much, though maybe that will change when it's actually released to the public?). OpenAI releasing this now though suggests that maybe they do have some big leaps to come in the next few months.

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghpredicts NO

@alextes as of this moment nobody I know in real life is talking about it and I'm not particularly excited about it being a big leap forward (although I am a ChatGPT Plus user so I will be trying it out when I can!) Just my two cents, I'd be open to arguments why I should think this is important

dominic avatar
Dominic de Bettencourtbought Ṁ50 of NO

6 months isn’t that long, and I’m not aware of any current projects planned to release in that timeframe, so it would need to be a surprise of some sort. Maybe OpenAI has a video model or something like that, but seems <40%

SteveSokolowski avatar
Steve Sokolowskibought Ṁ5 of NO

I'm only betting NO because this market wouldn't resolve YES if open source closes the gap on OpenAI, which is where I make significant progress to be made.

My guess is that the biggest advance during the next six months will be the deployment of massive autonomous open source language model botnets that automate scams.

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghpredicts NO

@SteveSokolowski One possible way this could resolve YES through open source development is through a big breakthrough in NSFW tech, whether through text or images or video or whatever. if it’s big enough that everyone is talking about it etc