Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before March 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M subsidy added]
resolved Apr 1
Resolved as

Resolves YES if in my opionion there has been a major public-facing breakthrough in AI equivilent to the launch of ChatGPT or Midjourney/StableDiffusion. I wont participate or trade in this market unless its to make a quick buck off some volatility (I wont hold a position at market close at the very least)

This market is more likely to resolve YES if:

*There is a development in AI that is being talked about by people I know in real life who aren't that interested in AI such as my parents or my brother

* There is a development in AI that I personally am very excited about because it seems like a big leap forward

This market is more likely to resolve NO if:

*The situation is largely the same as today regarding consumer facing AIs. ie Midjourney still uses discord and has only slightly improved if at all. ChatGPT is largely the same. Googles AIs aren't talked about by normal people. And any new products are niche and uknown to the public

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Alright, so I decided that since there could be a reasonable argument for both sides since sora came out, i decided about a month ago that i would resolve this to the probability it was at after march 31. The market has decided :) hopefully this isn’t too controversial

I think it's bad that if I'd messaged 3 other whales and we agreed to set the probability at 80% it'd resolve 80%? Unless you would've overridden that. Imo it's generally bad for market probability to affect resolutions in real markets

@jacksonpolack how would you have known? i didn’t tell anyone before resolving. That would be a very strange thing to do if you didn’t think the probability of me resolving Yes was 80%.

@DylanSlagh I may have happened to profit on it myself, but, especially given the last-minute volatility, this doesn't seem cool to me. Not to mention all the bad incentives if this starts to happen often enough that people start to worry about it. There is a commons being burned here. Markets should resolve in predictable ways that are resilient to being known, not as surprises that don't work if people correctly anticipate them.

What was your actual own judgment?

@EliezerYudkowsky the market probability was pretty much based off the comments i made around the release of Sora anyway. I disagree about the burning of the commons as if i’m some sort of mana influencer and this is a new trend in subjective markets. Look, as I said a month ago “de-risk now or forever hold your peace”. It’s not my responsibility to make you understand that this is a subjective market and the resolution is up to interpretation and my interpretation was that it should resolve to 5%

how would you have known? i didn’t tell anyone before resolving. That would be a very strange thing to do if you didn’t think the probability of me resolving Yes was 80%.

I wouldn't have known now, but if this becomes a thing you do a lot, or everyone does a lot, then I'd be more likely to know

bought Ṁ500 NO

Sora has blown over so quickly that this feels like a solid No. It was basically a hop from "static movie moments" to "simple transitional shots" and the only people IRL who know about it are already tech heads. Not to mention the aforementioned not-fully-open/public nature of it.

14 days left. Is there really 2% chance per day?

@NoRespect the uncertainty is regarding how i’ll decide to resolve it. primarily regarding sora.

@DylanSlagh shhh I'm trying to deleverage here

I’ve decided that I’ll wait until march 31st to make a decision about this market. Sorry that this ended up being a “guess what Dylan is thinking” kind of market but that’s always been what it is, so… 🤷‍♂️ de-risk now or forever hold your peace

Is Sora good enough to resolve this? Tech people are talking about it a lot, but I question whether it will have an impact > DALLE 3 for example, especially if not released publicly before 3/31

@dominic I’ll say two things:

1) While Sora is indeed pretty exciting it’s hard to get especially excited about something that you can’t use for yourself. It would be much more exciting if I could use Sora to create videos based on prompts I thought of (that would also make it more like the influential releases of ChatGPT, midjourney etc.)

2) I’m not convinced this is being talked about by non-tech people. Has this been covered on the major evening news programs for instance? We’ll see whether it reaches a bigger audience eventually.

So while I don’t intend to resolve this market immediately we will have to wait and see.

@DylanSlagh a lot of my twitter feed has been people freaking out about this, and the people I talk to on discord are also all talking about it. I don't know to what extent it's well known offline, but I think it has already reached a massive audience online, unless "people who use the internet a lot" is what you meant by tech people

@DylanSlagh Sora alone has crushed Adobe stock price by 10%. Why you act like it’s not a big deal?

@mathvc I never said it wasn’t a big deal, I was referencing specific parts of the description and why I don’t think the criteria has been met just yet. I just said we will have to wait and see. I just checked and it looks like it has been covered on basically every major news program so that’s good reason for YES.

@DylanSlagh I just saw a thread on twitter reactions, not sure how relevant that is here but if it helps:

@DylanSlagh A tech demo, impressive as it might be, seems a long way from "equivalent to ChatGPT or Midjourney." Things like Runway have been around for a while; until Sora is public, I don't think we're there yet. (And that's why I bought NO.) The announcement of Google Duplex (its phone assistant) made worldwide headlines, but it seems ridiculous to argue it made it into the annals of major AI history before (or, arguably, even after) its public release.

@gramophone While I sorta agree which is why i haven’t resolved yet. It’s also kinda like, ChatGPT was the big breakthrough moment for text, Midjourney’s tech was the big breakthrough moment for AI art/ images. You could say Sora is the “big moment” for video? While I agree it’s not as impactful as a demo / not something people can use

@DylanSlagh If Sora was available to the public, I think I'd agree.

bought Ṁ250 YES

hell yes there will be


bought Ṁ100 of NO

If people are buying YES on the ChatGPT “hear, see and speak” news, I’d say I can see where you’re coming from, this may well be discussed by the general public. Because it feels like a big step. Still, seen through the capability lens, computer vision, speech recognition and voice synthesis are far from leaps in capability in my opinion.

Curious how OP feels about this.

predicted NO

@alextes Not OP, but at least to me this doesn't feel like a huge leap forward, I don't feel like it enables a ton of new use cases (and I haven't heard people talking about it much, though maybe that will change when it's actually released to the public?). OpenAI releasing this now though suggests that maybe they do have some big leaps to come in the next few months.

predicted NO

@alextes as of this moment nobody I know in real life is talking about it and I'm not particularly excited about it being a big leap forward (although I am a ChatGPT Plus user so I will be trying it out when I can!) Just my two cents, I'd be open to arguments why I should think this is important

bought Ṁ50 of NO

6 months isn’t that long, and I’m not aware of any current projects planned to release in that timeframe, so it would need to be a surprise of some sort. Maybe OpenAI has a video model or something like that, but seems <40%