Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
➕
Plus
1k
Ṁ350k
2029
25%
Other
14%
Josh Shapiro
12%
Gavin Newsom
9%
Gretchen Whitmer
8%
Andy Beshear
7%
Pete Buttigieg
6%
Kamala Harris
2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
1.9%
Michelle Obama
1.8%
Wes Moore
1.4%
J.B. Pritzker
1.2%
Raphael Warnock
1%
Mark Cuban
1%
Mark Kelly
1%
Cory Booker

Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in 2028

Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention. If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention. Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"

Remember to bet for "Other". Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added

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I would've thought she'd be closer to 15-20

bought Ṁ50 Answer #be8c3f775b96 YES

.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #be8c3f775b96 YES

maximum chaos

Josh Shapiro

@dittopoop lol once again Manifold is delusional in predictable ways. Did people actually watch Josh Shapiro at the DNC? Do they think he has the connections or chops to win black/minority voters in the South which is prerequisite to winning the Democratic nomination? Pete + Shapiro would win the Manifold caucus by 90% but have precisely like 1.5% odds between them

bought Ṁ2 Other YES

Add Jon Favreau?

bought Ṁ50 Kamala Harris YES

they’re selling at least like 20 cents for 1.2 cents

@fakebaechallenge After losing the popular vote? She's cooked. Unless a new Obama emerges in Congress we'll probably get a governor as the nominee. Either one from a blue state that successfully pushes back on Trump's agenda (if his approval tanks) or one from a red/battleground state who looks like they can peel off his coalition.

@Jonagold i think you have more faith in the DNC / the democratic party writ large than i do. if they had the genuine ability to choose their perfect preferred candidate at will harris wouldn’t have had to pick up after a sundowning old man in the first place

  • It's been a long time (~~over a century?~~ EDIT: 56 years, thanks @NcyRocks) since a Democratic candidate, or any major-party nominee other than Trump, has even run again after losing.

  • More specifically, Harris has a lot in common with Clinton in 2016, and Clinton was not renominated.

  • Unlike Clinton, Harris was not able to win a major party nomination through the usual primary process, she was eliminated in 2020 very early.

  • I would say that Biden dropped out at all is evidence in favor of the ability of the democratic party writ large to not nominate candidates they think will lose.

@BoltonBailey Apart from Trump, the most recent candidate to run again after losing was Nixon, who lost to JFK in 1960 then won in 1968. The most recent candidate to run again immediately after losing was Adlai Stevenson II, who ran against Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956.

Add Shawn Fain.

@Parks done

Consider adding Marie Gluesenkamp Perez?

bought Ṁ25 Answer #7eb7954ca741 YES

I like this take, "Trump of the Dems"

shawn fain

At this moment I don’t see it likely that Democrats would nominate another woman.

Bought some Harris at 4%, seems sufficiently likely consensus changes a lot by like January 2026

I like how you think.

bought Ṁ300 Gavin Newsom YES

Pete being above Newsom is crazy

@NGK Literal sleeper pick. Bro naps all day.

Gretchen Whitmer Jr. or whoever could make an assload of mana betting on this market

This made me realize gretchen has 5 kids. Amazing that she managed to have such a successful career with 5 kids!

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