Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2030?
12
375
2030
40%
chance

Currently, cars kill about 40,000 Americans a year; the number has not dropped below 30,000 since 1945. Will we do better in the future?


Note that this market looks at the absolute number of deaths, rather than the death rate. 


I will resolve to data from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, if available. This data may be delayed by some months (6+ months is common), and while I may resolve based on early data (e.g., the first 9 months + projection of the remaining 3), in the case of a YES resolution a significant delay should be expected. 

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Anyone know if there is past evidence of a strong risk compensation effect, which might cause the death rate to appear to resist change at a high level (per-capita or per-passenger-mile if not per-year) if vehicle passengers can e.g. order a self-driving vehicle to speed more aggressively?

Currently MM thinks it's more likely that this will happen in 2029 than in 2030. That's not how time works.

https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-us-automotive-deaths-drop-belo-bad0712b2d09