Will the USA have a female president in 2022?
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201Ṁ4099resolved Jan 1
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NO1H
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Jan 19, 8:13pm: temporarily transfers of power do not count.
Jan 19, 8:14pm: #politics #Biden #USpolitics
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Life expectancy of 78.6 years for a male is the wrong thing to look at. You want the one-year death probability for a 79-year-old man, which is about 5%. There are of course non-death possibilities, but I expect those to approximately balance out with the fact that the president of the US is going to receive exceptional medical care.
Biden is 79 years old; the average life expectancy for a male is 78.6 years; also assassins. I agree this should lean toward "no", but a 1/25 chance is making yes look tempting...
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