Will the USA have a female president in 2022?
83
165
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
Jan 19, 8:13pm: temporarily transfers of power do not count. Jan 19, 8:14pm: #politics #Biden #USpolitics
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bought Ṁ100 of NO
Life expectancy of 78.6 years for a male is the wrong thing to look at. You want the one-year death probability for a 79-year-old man, which is about 5%. There are of course non-death possibilities, but I expect those to approximately balance out with the fact that the president of the US is going to receive exceptional medical care.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Biden is 79 years old; the average life expectancy for a male is 78.6 years; also assassins. I agree this should lean toward "no", but a 1/25 chance is making yes look tempting...